This Week, NEPSE increased by 6.04 percent.

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In the four trading days this week, the index gained two days and lost two days. On the occasion of Yomari Punhi, the market was closed on Sunday. This week, the NEPSE index closed at 2,520.23, up 143.49 points (6.04 percent ). Last week, the index closed at 2,376.74, down 2.99 percent from the previous week’s level.

The index went as high as 2,542.11 and as low as 2,346.96 this week, resulting in 195.15 points of volatility.

 

Trend Evaluation

When compared to the same time last year, the index is up more than 30.21 percent. It has, however, lost more than 20% of its value since hitting an all-time high of 3,198.60 four months ago. Despite this, the index has rebounded roughly 11.53 percent since hitting an intraday low of 2,259.63 on December 13th (most recent pivot low).

Charting with Candlesticks

This week’s market movement has generated a prolonged green candle with significantly shorter wicks on both sides on the weekly candlestick chart. (Last week, the weekly chart formed a candle that looked like a hammer candlestick but with an extra higher wick.)

This week’s first trading day (Monday) produced a red candle, indicating a loss of 17.93 points on the index. The following two trading days saw the emergence of green candlesticks, the latter of which was longer than the former. The last candle created on Thursday, however, featured a little, red actual body, signifying market perplexity and indecisiveness.

 

Averages of Moving Averages

On the plus side, for the first time since November 22, the index chart has closed higher above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average. It also outperforms the 5-day EMA.

The 5-day EMA, however, remains below the 20-day EMA. On November 25, the 5 day EMA crossed the 20 day EMA from above, establishing a Dead Crossover pattern. The Dead Cross is a technical pattern that indicates the possibility of a decline, and until recently, the index has been losing.

Traders and market experts consider the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to be a vital indicator for evaluating general long-term market trends. On November 23, the price fell below the 200-day SMA. When a stock’s price falls below its 200-day moving average, it’s regarded as a bearish indication, signaling that the stock is on its way down. The index is well below the 200-day SMA.

Indicators of Change

The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator that examines the size of recent price fluctuations to determine if a stock or index is overbought or oversold. Values of 70 or higher on the RSI, according to traditional interpretation and usage, signal that an investment is becoming overbought or overvalued, and may be ready for a trend reversal or corrective retreat in price. A reading of 30 or less on the RSI suggests that the market is oversold or undervalued.

On a daily timescale, the RSI reading is 48.96. Breaking over 50 on the RSI would signal intermediate-term positive movement. Meanwhile, the weekly chart’s RSI value is 42.91.

On the other hand, at the daily period, both the MACD and the signal lines are negative, i.e. below zero, with the MACD reading at -66.68. Despite the fact that both lines are negative, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating a shallow potential of positive mood in the market.

If the MACD reading been positive, the MACD crossover would have been more conclusive. It’s worth mentioning the following quote:

“Traders who seek to profit from bullish MACD crosses that occur when the indicator is below zero should be aware that they are profiting from a shift in momentum direction while the moving averages are still predicting a short-term sell-off.” Although this bullish crossover can often properly anticipate a trend reversal, it is often regarded as riskier than if the MACD was above zero.”

 

Support and Opposition

When it comes to determining support and resistance levels from a stock/index chart, are no hard and fast rules.

The price above which the index has had difficulty moving up is the resistance level. As a result, resistance can be found in the preceding high (or a succession of highs if they are all on the same level). In the meantime, if the stock or index chart has broken below the prior low, it can be inferred as a resistance level, because the previous support level serves as resistance if the price/index has broken below it.

The support level, on the other hand, is simply the price below which the index has struggled to fall. As a result, the preceding low (or a succession of lows on the same level) might be utilized as support. Meanwhile, if the stock or index chart has risen above the prior high, it can be interpreted as a support level, because the previous resistance level functions as support if the price/index has broken above it.

The index has rapidly broken up from the barrier at 2,500 as a result of these reasons (this level was deduced both in terms of price action and psychological level). At 2,346.96, is immediate support, followed by 2,259.63.

Meanwhile, the most substantial resistance can be seen at 2,670, followed by the range (2,840 – 2,880).

Fibonacci Retracement is a retracement of the Fibonacci sequence

Meanwhile, the Fibonacci Retracement can be calculated using the major-trend extreme points to determine the S/R levels. In this case, the extreme-low index level is 1,093.07, and the extreme-high index level is 3,193.16.

The index broke up from the resistance zone at 2,390.93 this week based on these expectations. Significant resistance can be found higher at 2,697.54 and then at 3,193.16, which is the ultimate peak.

The nearest significant support, based on these assumptions, is at 2,390.93, followed by 2,143.11.

 

Weekly Market Summary:

This week, 1.86 lakh transactions totaled more than 2.68 crore unit shares worth Rs 13.86 Arba. now has a market capitalization of Rs. 3,543,507.89 million.

Performance of the NEPSE index and its sub-indices: (Increment is based on the previous week closed value)

This week, the NEPSE index gained by 6.04 percent. With a rise of 15.92 percent this week, the Manufacturing and Processing sector outperformed the rest of the market.

 

 

 

Microfinance, non-life insurance, and hydropower stocks having the highest monthly Beta values.

The highest monthly Beta value is 0.63 for Narayani Development Bank Limited (NABBC), followed by 0.61 and 0.56 for Multipurpose Finance Company Limited (MPFL) and Hydropower Company Limited (BARUN).

 

This week’s biggest gainer is Hydropower Company Limited (BARUN). BARUN finished at Rs. 493, an increase of Rs. 98 (24.81 percent).

 

 

 

Century Commercial Bank Limited (CCBL) is among the top losers of the week, with a price drop of 16.60 percent and an LTP of Rs. 1276.

 

Top Stocks in Terms of Turnover, Volume, and Transactions:

The most actively traded business this week is Himalayan Distillery Limited (HDL). This week, HDL shares were exchanged for a total of Rs. 1.37 Arba.

 

Buyers’ Agents of the Week:

This week’s top buyer broker was Naasa Securities Co.Ltd (Broker No. 58), which purchased stocks worth Rs 1.11 Arba.

 

This week’s top seller broker was Naasa Securities Co.Ltd (Broker No. 58). Stocks worth Rs 80.99 crores were sold by the brokerage business.

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