Nepal’s Macroeconomic Snapshot: Resilient Remittances, Forex Stability, and Balanced Trade Dynamics in the First Seven Months of 2023/24

The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central bank of Nepal, has presented an overview of the country’s macroeconomic and financial situation based on data from the first seven months, ending mid-February of 2023/24.

Overall

According to NRB, the inflation rate was estimated at 5.01% on a year-on-year basis. The gross foreign exchange reserves reached USD 13.89 billion. Total imports decreased by 2.3%, exports by 7.1%, and the trade deficit by 1.8%. The NEPSE index stood at 2101.16.

Inflation

Year-on-year consumer price inflation moderated to 5.01% in mid-February 2024, compared to 7.88% a year ago. Wholesale price inflation stood at 2.82% in mid-February 2024.

Import and Export

Merchandise exports decreased by 7.1% to Rs. 86.83 billion, while merchandise imports decreased by 2.3% to Rs. 897.94 billion. The total trade deficit decreased by 1.8% to Rs. 811.11 billion.

Services and Remittance

Net services income remained at a deficit of Rs. 37.26 billion, while remittance inflows increased by 21.6% to Rs. 839 billion.

Inter-bank Transaction

BFIs inter-bank transactions amounted to Rs. 2872.44 billion. The price of oil decreased to USD 83.88 per barrel, and the price of gold increased to USD 2015.20 per ounce.

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Gross foreign exchange reserves increased to Rs. 1844.94 billion. Reserves held by NRB and other institutions increased, and the Indian currency’s share in total reserves stood at 22.6%.

Exchange Rate

The Nepalese currency depreciated by 1.05% against the US dollar.

Nepal Government Expenditure and Revenue

Total government expenditure stood at Rs. 686.75 billion, with revenue mobilization reaching Rs. 567.40 billion.

Cash Balance of Government

The cash balance at various accounts of the Government of Nepal (GoN) maintained with NRB stood at Rs. 215.26 billion.

Banking

Domestic credit increased by 3.2%, deposits at Banks and Financial Institutions (BFIs) increased by 7.0%, and private sector credit from BFIs increased by 4.1%.

Interest Rates

Average base rates of commercial banks, development banks, and finance companies stood at 9.06%, 11.13%, and 12.70%, respectively.

Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments (BOP) remained at a surplus of Rs. 297.72 billion.