Tag: promise

  • 7 Stock Market Investing Tips

    7 Stock Market Investing Tips


    Have you decided to invest in the stock market? Consider these 7 stock market investing tips when making your investments.

    1. Have a solid comprehension of basic economic principals.

    Before you get started, you should understand basic principals and laws of economics. The stock market closely follows the law of supply and demand. For example, when there is a large demand for the stock of a certain company, the cost of its stock will increase along with the demand. However, if there are more stock available for sale than there are buyers, the unit price of that company stock will decrease.

    2. Learn about prospective companies you want to invest in.

    Do your homework before you invest in prospective companies. Read the company annual report and find out about their products, operations, services and basic business track record. This information gives you an idea of how stable the company is and whether they can deliver on their promise to offer profits to investors.

    3. Select companies with staying power.

    There are so many companies that exist in today’s stock market, selecting becomes a major decision for beginning investors. Relatively stable companies and business are owned by the government, unless there is a political revolution or crisis going on. Gasoline companies and telecommunications companies are usually profitable and stable because there is a constant demand for their services and products. While IT companies are rapidly growing in today’s stock market, there are so many of them it may be a challenge to check their profiles to exercise reasonable care before investing. Before putting your money into an IT company, verify their track record and make sure they are stable and profitable for a minimum of 10 years.

    4. Keep an eye on the news.

    Guesswork is completely ineffective when it comes to investing in the stock market. Good intuition and solid decision-making come from learning about global and local news both politically and economically. When you watch the news, make sure to keep track of the industry your company is in. Even stable companies may go bankrupt or have a major blow that will bring them down.

    5. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

    Avoid investing in just one company and spread out your stock investments to several businesses. When you have stock concentrated in just one company, you have a greater chance of losing it all. When you spread out your investments over several companies, those earning profits can cushion the ones that not not as profitable.

    6. Stockbrokers aren’t the final word.

    A stock broker is actually gambling with your money so you need to do your own homework. Dishonest brokers can take advantage of investors who do not fully comprehend how the stock market works.

    7. Greed is your enemy.

    While everyone is eager to make profits in the stock market, an investor loses their sense of reason when they are fueled by greed. A money hungry investor may forget to check on economic rumors and spontaneously decide to sell or buy with the thought of making major profits and then lose it all.

    Putting your money in the stock market can of course be risky, but the above stock market investing tips should help point you in the right direction.

  • How Does Hindsight Bias Influence Investing Decisions?

    How Does Hindsight Bias Influence Investing Decisions?


    Since its top of 1881 in 2016, the Nepal Stock Exchange has been on a downward trend. The market dropped to as low as 1100, a drop of nearly 40% from its peak. Many investors lost a lot of money as a result of the devastating market meltdown.

    If we ask investors right now if they thought the market was going to tumble after 2016, many will say yes. However, at the peak, investors were more bullish on the market. The massive quantity of everyday turnover demonstrates this. The daily transaction amount was between 1.5 and 2 billion rupees.

    So, how does an investor’s opinion of the same event change? This is a psychological phenomena known as ‘Hindsight bias.’

    The tendency of people to perceive events as more predictable than they actually are is referred to as hindsight bias. In other words, it makes the past appear less predictable than it was. Things always appear more evident after they have occurred.

    Decision making is difficult prior to the occurrence due to a lack of information and foresight. However, looking at the available results after the event, the outcome appears more predictable.

    During the bullish era in our market, investors were uninformed of the oncoming market disaster. As a result, many people were highly involved in stocks. Some people predicted that the market would crash. However, no one was certain at the moment.

    However, after the market fall, investors believe that they were forewarned that the market would drop. With more information regarding the market crash becomes accessible, investors appear to be more sure about the event’s predictability.

    Why is hindsight bias dangerous in investing?

    Consider the following scenario: You are considering purchasing a stock called ABC. However, you do not purchase it for some reason. The price of ABC stock then skyrockets. What are your thoughts?

    The answer is that you are stupid. You kick yourself for squandering the opportunity. You are remorseful for not purchasing the stock when you realized it was a winner. You tell yourself, ‘I knew the stock would soar.’ This is what we mean by hindsight bias.

    So, what makes it dangerous? This is because you have made a promise to yourself that you would not make the same mistake again. You are more confident in your decision-making abilities, and you vow to seize the next opportunity. This is the danger that hindsight bias can cause. The next time might not be the same as the previous.

    Let’s have a look at another scenario: You consider purchasing a stock called ABC. However, you do not purchase it for some reason. The price of ABC stock then plummets. Now consider if you would have felt the same way in the first situation.

    No, it does not. You congratulate yourself on making a wise decision not to buy ABC stock. You knew the stock would decline, which is why you didn’t buy it in the first place.

    Why is the response different in these two cases? In an ideal world, the answer in both cirplusstances would be the same. In both cirplusstances, you made the same decision not to acquire stock ABC prior to the rise or fall in its price. However, after the event occurs, such as a price rise or decline, you change your reaction in accordance with the nature of the occurrence.

    This is risky because it gives you the impression that you knew it all along, giving you a false sense of security in your judgment. This can lead to overconfidence in your financial abilities and reckless decisions.

    How do you prevent falling into the Hindsight Bias trap?

    Several behavioral experts have recommended producing a list of everything that was considered when making the decision. This could be a good plan. We will know what our thought process was at the time of decision making if we make a record of the reasoning behind our decisions. We cannot change our statements after the event has occurred. This will aid us in making an accurate assessment of our abilities.

    Investors may not consider hindsight bias as a concern. However, it may lead you to make decisions based on your perspective rather than facts.

    In conclusion

    In our daily lives, we experience hindsight bias. Whether it’s investing, gaming, exams, or anything else, the outcome makes us feel much more confident in our abilities. If Real Madrid beats Sevilla, we’ll tell ourselves and others that we knew Madrid was going to win. Similarly, if the stock/real estate price is rising, ‘I knew it’ comes into play.

    Even if it hasn’t caused any immediate harm, it can make you overconfident, causing your next bet to be more illogical. Real Madrid won, but the outcome might be different the next time. Past events cannot be utilized to predict the future completely. Information and strategies evolve in tandem with the passage of time.

    As a result, it is preferable to treat each possibility as new and base your judgment on facts. The past appears to be easy to anticipate, yet this is not the case. It is a hallucination that arises following the occurrence of the result. As a result, it is preferable to stick to your investing ideas and tactics.